Will Tesla Deliver Model 3 in 2017?

Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk is the master of manufacturing suspense which keeps him and Tesla in the media spot light.   Like a kinder and gentle Trump and a more substantive Kardashian, Musk has crafted enough material for the media to keep the public hooked in.

SolarCity could be one of the sore spots in the recent meeting between Trump and Musk  in light of Trump’s anti-solar rhetoric.

On January 21, 2017, using a series of “tweets,” Musk has mapped out an update schedule that is more along the lines of a smartphone-maker than a traditional automaker.

Though, based on the track record, it is widely speculated that the delivery of the Model 3 will be delayed till 2018.  Yes, Tesla has missed production targets and delivery deadlines in the past.  In defense, Tesla fans would argue that they are supposed to know what they are doing by now and Model 3 is less complex than the Model X.  Model 3 will be using Gigafactory batteries.

Supposedly, Gigafactory is producing batteries.  Yet, contrary to his style, Musk has been tight-lipped about any specifics of the delivery or the production schedule.

Mind you that the goal is delivering 100,000 Model 3 by the end of 2017.  The “2018” delivery dates are only for recent orders.

Usually, Tesla blamed the production delay on others, i.e., supply chain issues.  One solution is to build the Gigafactory for their own batteries.  Another one is to purchase Grohman Engineering, an electric powertrain company.  Tesla claimed that they are still undergoing supply chain refinement, vertical integration, and plant and production expansion.  That said, it is Musk’s style, and he openly admitted it, that he tends to set bold production and shipment goals

There is something called the “Elon Musk Premium.”  Tesla’s shareholders have given Musk the benefit of all doubts.  How On January 21, 2017, using a series of “tweets,” Musk has mapped out an update schedule that is more along the lines of a smartphone-maker than a traditional automaker.

How many companies can miss earnings and revenue guidance and delay in deliveries as many times, and still have an ungodly 130 (2018) forward PE?  Recent surge in stock price could be opportune time to raise capital, analyst upgrades help to boost price for offering.

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